Tuesday, May 1, 2012
Baby names for statisticians
- How probable is it that I am Napoleon?
- 50 %.
- ??? (She must have gone mad.)
- No, it is 50 %, because either I am Napoleon or I am not.
Such problems with statistics are for instance well known for all pregnant women who make some genetic tests that provide some probability data... What is the significance/usefulness of a statistical test/method that is only 87% correct, that gives you 2-3% false positive results, and gives you a final estimation saying that your baby has some health or developmental problems with 1:23 probability. Science helped you a lot again...